NUCOR (NUE)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Nucor Misses Q4 Estimates But Guides Higher on Strong Backlogs

January 27, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Nucor Corporation (NUE) reported Q4 2025 results that missed analyst expectations on both revenue and earnings, with the stock falling ~3% in after-hours trading. However, management struck a constructive tone, guiding for higher Q1 2026 earnings on 40% year-over-year backlog growth and expectations for reduced steel imports in 2026.

Did Nucor Beat Earnings?

No — Nucor missed on both lines in Q4 2025:

Values retrieved from S&P Global

The miss was driven by lower realized pricing and lower volumes across the Steel Mills segment, combined with lower volumes in Steel Products.

For the full year 2025, Nucor generated:

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Q4 2025 saw sequential declines across all three segments versus Q3 2025:

Steel Mills — Adjusted EBT declined 34% Q/Q to $522 million, with EBT/ton falling to $88 from $123. Total shipments of 5.9 million tons were down 8% sequentially, with declines across sheet (-7%), bars (-8%), structural (-12%), and plate (-7%).

Steel Products — Adjusted EBT fell 21% Q/Q to $251 million despite slightly higher realized pricing. Volumes declined 13% sequentially, with rebar fabrication down 24%, joist & deck down 14%, and building systems down 13%.

Raw Materials — EBT dropped 44% Q/Q to $24 million, primarily due to scheduled maintenance outages at DRI facilities that reduced production 25% to 733,000 tons.

How Did the Stock React?

NUE closed at $177.66 on January 26, 2026, and fell to $172 in after-hours trading — a decline of approximately 3.2%. The stock had rallied significantly heading into the print, trading near 52-week highs ($183.32 high vs. $97.59 low).*

Values retrieved from S&P Global

What Did Management Guide?

Nucor expects Q1 2026 earnings to be higher than Q4 2025, with improvements across all segments:

2026 Capital Expenditure: Nucor plans ~$2.5 billion in capex, down from $3.4 billion in 2025. Major projects include:

Free Cash Flow: Management expects improved FCF in 2026 driven by lower capex (~$900 million reduction), ~5% higher shipments, higher average realized pricing, and incremental EBITDA from recently completed growth projects.

Why Is Nucor Constructive on 2026?

Management highlighted several tailwinds supporting the outlook:

Strong Mill Backlogs: Backlogs are ~40% higher year-over-year and ~10% higher quarter-over-quarter, providing visibility into Q1 demand.

Lower Imports Expected: Trade enforcement is having an impact:

• Corrosion resistant sheet imports: -48% in 2H 2025 vs. 2H 2024
• Hot rolled sheet imports: -52% in 2H 2025 vs. 2H 2024
• Cold rolled sheet imports: -44% in 2H 2025 vs. 2H 2024

Management expects 2026 to see the full-year impact of 232 tariffs plus benefits from CORE and rebar trade cases.

Balanced End Markets: Data centers, CHIPS manufacturing plants, energy infrastructure, and border fence construction provide growth vectors, while traditional office and heavy equipment remain challenged.

Capital Allocation & Returns

Nucor returned $1.2 billion to shareholders in 2025:

This represented 69% of net earnings returned to shareholders in 2025, above the company's commitment of at least 40%.

Balance Sheet Remains Strong:

• Total Debt: $7.1B (1.7x EBITDA, 24% of capital)
• Cash & Equivalents: $2.7B
• Net Debt: $4.4B (1.1x EBITDA)
• Credit Ratings: A-/A-/A3 (S&P/Fitch/Moody's) — highest in the industry

What About Safety?

Nucor set a new safety record in 2025, with the injury and illness (I&I) rate reaching its lowest point in company history:

• 35% improvement over the past five years
• 21 divisions had zero recordable injuries in 2025
• December 2025 was the safest month in company history

Key Risks to Watch

• Pricing Pressure: Average realized prices declined sequentially across most product categories in Q4
• Volume Sensitivity: Shipments declined 8% Q/Q in Steel Mills despite healthy backlogs
• Execution on West Virginia: The $2.8B+ sheet mill is the company's largest project and remains critical to 2026-2027 growth
• Scrap Cost Volatility: Nucor's metal margins are ~80% correlated with scrap costs; rising scrap could compress margins

The Bottom Line

Nucor missed Q4 2025 estimates as lower pricing and volumes pressured results across all segments. However, the setup for 2026 looks more favorable: backlogs are up 40% Y/Y, imports are declining sharply, capex is stepping down by ~$900 million, and recently completed growth projects should contribute incrementally. The after-hours decline of ~3% appears to reflect disappointment on the miss rather than concern about the forward outlook.

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More on Nucor: Company Overview | Q3 2025 Earnings | Transcripts